South Lebanon From the border to Saida · 2026
Imagery fetched, measures run, legal record surveyed. Case page in draft, not public. Record as of 2 October 2026.An imagery-led reading of the Israeli-led attacks on Lebanon in the 2026 war, beginning in the south. It reads physical change on the ground, in villages and built fabric, farmland and tree cover, against a baseline from before the war taken in the same season, with Sentinel-2 optical pairs and Sentinel-1 radar at ten metres, through the war and after the cessation. Named hospitals, schools, places of worship, and heritage sites wait on licensed building-scale imagery, since no open imagery at that scale covers the war. Imagery does not show who acted: attribution of any strike rests on the documentary record, each source named with its status, and the imagery corroborates physical conditions and patterns.
The case has fetched its imagery, tested its pairs for season and sun angle and kept the ones that match, and set each change against a comparison zone of four northern districts, chosen from conflict-event records. Its rules and thresholds were written and hashed before any difference was computed, and its measures stand beside UNDP’s building-level counts. It has surveyed 38 sources in the legal record and keeps a register of 41 claims, each with its status. Its page is a draft, not yet public. No finding has been drawn or published. Each measure states its noise floor and what it cannot show: a ten-metre pixel is not a building, and a change in the surface is not its cause. No local verification has been done, and a frame that cannot be read with confidence is withheld, not guessed.
